Everyday Killings in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The mean count of daily homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new government data. But, security experts have advised that murder figures might not indicate better countrywide safety.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when the President began the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen over these past months is extremely important,” the President stated, adding that last month the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her public safety strategy for an ostensibly steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is particularly true considering the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder data and say: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to properly identify and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it could mask periods when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Relying on the per-day average makes surges of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the country to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst said.