Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
