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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.