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It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the reason of the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?

That’s a particularly tough query to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have stacked up.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent might become the performer he showed in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.